Washington: Iran's recent missile attacks targeting US forces and bases in the Gulf region have highlighted significant strains within the longstanding US-Gulf security partnership. Allison Minor, a former director for Arabian Peninsula affairs at the White House National Security Council during President Donald Trump's first term and current director of the Atlantic Council's Project for Middle East Integration, emphasizes the need for a strategic shift in how Washington and its Gulf allies approach security.
According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, Minor, in collaboration with Alina Romanowski, a former US ambassador to Kuwait and Iraq, argues in a recent Atlantic Council analysis that it is time for the United States and its Persian Gulf partners to transition from relying on a US security guarantee to fostering regional integration, shared capabilities, and stronger partnerships.
Minor explains that the latest Iranian strikes underscore the difficulties the US faces in an escalating conflict. The Iranian regime's willingness to continue confrontations on its terms reveals vulnerabilities in the current US security posture in the region. Achieving a de-escalation and new agreements, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, poses significant challenges under these circumstances.
She further suggests that the traditional US security model in the Gulf, rooted in the Carter Doctrine, is no longer sustainable. Growing frustrations among Gulf partners, who were not consulted before the escalation of tensions with Iran, necessitate a reevaluation of the US's role from a guarantor to an integrator of security in the region.
Minor advocates for a collaborative approach where the US assists Gulf countries in developing their own defenses against external threats rather than leading independent military campaigns. This shift requires rethinking the US's presence and engagement in the region, aligning military basing strategies with this new collaborative security framework.
Addressing the immediate need to reassure Gulf partners amidst ongoing Iranian aggression, Minor emphasizes the importance of a sustainable cease-fire agreement with Iran and collaborative efforts to address regional threats. She highlights the potential for stronger regional capabilities, including integrated missile defense and intelligence sharing, as critical components of a new security architecture.
Minor also notes the increasing strategic independence sought by Gulf powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, suggesting that while divisions exist, the US can play a valuable role in fostering cooperation and stability. Ending the Iran conflict is crucial for establishing a durable, Iran-proof security framework in the Gulf, allowing for a consensus policy on managing regional threats.
In the long term, the goal is to develop a robust, diversified Gulf security architecture that deters potential adversaries and ensures regional peace and stability, supported by trusted partners beyond the US.